要约收购作为国际上一种常见的收购方式，以往在A股并不常见。但是，2015年之后，由于市场较为低迷，对产业资本吸引力上升，A股已经有过多起要约收购案例。对以往要约收购案例进行研究，或许可以让投资者——尤其是已经持有股票的投资者——对于是否接受要约有所参考。

　　根据Wind数据库，过去几年的数据统计表明，要约收购公告发布后，股价通常向要约价靠拢，而截止日后的几个交易日内，下跌概率更大。

　　过去的数据可供参考，但未来也不是历史的简单重复。具体到水井坊的案例，首先要搞清楚帝亚吉欧要约收购水井坊的来龙去脉。

　　帝亚吉欧部分要约收购：拟增持水井坊至70%

　　2019年2月27日，水井坊发布公告称：公司于2019年2月26日接到股东Grand Metropolitan International Holdings Limited（简称GMIHL，公司实际控制人帝亚吉欧的全资间接子公司）书面通知，收购人拟通过要约收购的方式将其直接和间接合计持有的四川水井坊股份有限公司的股份比例从目前60%提高至最多不超过70%。

　　3月1日，水井坊正式发布了要约收购报告书。公告显示：帝亚吉欧以及收购人长期看好中国的白酒行业，相信水井坊作为中国位居前列的酒类品牌之一，在业内赢得了良好的品牌价值和市场口碑。本次要约收购目的旨在提高帝亚吉欧对水井坊的持股比例，巩固控股权，不以终止水井坊上市地位为目的。

　　公告显示：帝亚吉欧拟通过GMIHL收购至多不超过4885.46万股，收购无最低股份数量限制。本次要约收购的价格为45元/股，较水井坊26日37.71元的收盘价溢价19.33%。要约收购期共计30个自然日，即2019年3月5日至2019年4月3日。基于要约价格为45.00元/股的前提，本次要约收购所需最高资金总额为21.98亿元。在水井坊本次要约收购报告书摘要提示性公告之前，GMIHL已将约4.4亿元存入登记结算公司上海分公司指定帐户，不少于本次收购总额金额的20%，作为本次要约收购的履约保证。

　　帝亚吉欧是何方神圣，为何有如此财力能在短时间内完成如此巨大金额的收购？

　　帝亚吉欧：全球酒业巨头，具备履约能力

　　帝亚吉欧于1997年在英国成立，是一家全球性跨国公司，全球最大的酒业公司之一。同时在伦敦证券交易所（DGE.L）及纽约证券交易所（DEO.N）上市，当前总市值超过1000亿美元。

　　帝亚吉欧及其控股的公司，在全球180多个国家和地区开展有酒类经营业务，公司旗下拥有横跨蒸馏酒、葡萄酒和啤酒等一系列高端酒类品牌。

　　从公司的信用评级来看，帝亚吉欧的信用程度良好，三大国际评级公司均给与公司较高的信用评级，且展望为稳定。以下是最新的信用评级情况：

　　水井坊：接受要约是否暗藏套利机会？ src=http://getimg.jrj.com.cn/images/2019/04/weixin/one_20190401070351850.jpg>

　　从财务数据来看，帝亚吉欧的总资产、销售额和扣非净利润在近三个财年都保持着稳定的增长。截至2018年6月30日，帝亚吉欧总资产为297.15亿英镑，净资产为117.13亿英镑，净利润为30.22亿英镑，资产负债率为60.58%，其账面货币资金为8.74亿英镑，拥有较强的履约能力。

　　水井坊：接受要约是否暗藏套利机会？ src=http://getimg.jrj.com.cn/images/2019/04/weixin/one_20190401070353848.jpg>

　　要约收购公告显示：帝亚吉欧具备收购水井坊的主体资格，对履行要约收购义务所需资金进行了稳妥的安排，具备要约收购实力和资金支付能力，具备履行本次要约收购的义务能力。

　　那么，作为全球酒业巨头，为何要不惜重金收购水井坊呢？

　　水井坊：营收利润恢复增长，发力高端市场

　　公开资料显示，作为一个白酒品牌，水井坊是中国浓香型白酒的代表之一。2008年6月，“水井坊酒传统酿造技艺”被列入首批国家“非物质文化遗产”名录，并被列入“世界文化遗产”预备名录。

　　作为一家上市公司，水井坊的前身是四川制药股份有限公司，1996年12月6日在上海证券交易所上市。

　　1999年7月22日，公司名称变更为四川全兴股份有限公司。2006年9月19日，公司名称再次变更为四川水井坊股份有限公司。

　　2007年帝亚吉欧收购了水井坊母公司全兴集团43%的股份，后来又收购剩余股份，最终100%控股全兴集团，并且成为上市公司的实控人。

　　尽管拥有“水井坊”这一著名品牌，但由于经营和市场竞争的原因，上市公司曾经多年亏损，甚至一度被ST。帝亚吉欧入主水井坊之后，进行了一系列变革，业绩明显改善。2015年扭亏为盈，不仅脱掉了ST的帽子，随后几年营收和利润持续增长。

　　水井坊：接受要约是否暗藏套利机会？ src=http://getimg.jrj.com.cn/images/2019/04/weixin/one_20190401070355850.jpg>

　　根据最新的2018年业绩预增公告显示，水井坊预计2018年度实现归母净利润较上年同期相比增加约2.44亿元，同比增长约73%；营业收入较上年同期相比将增加约7.71亿元，同比增加约38%，扣非净利润较同期相比增长约2.48亿元，同比增加约69%。其中，中高档酒销售量与上年同期相比将增加约1487.67千升，同比增加约27%。

　　当前，在品牌、产品和渠道方面，也有相当重大的变革。公司建立了新的总代模式，砍掉低端酒，开始专注次高端，拟投资25亿元在邛崃投建全产业链基地。

　　总体而言，在帝亚吉欧入主以后，水井坊的经营有了明显的改观，多家券商也发布研报给与较积极的评价。

　　在这种情况下，已经持有股票的投资者到底是应该接受要约，还是持股等待未来水井坊有更好的发展，分享增长红利呢？

　　水井坊业绩持续改善的同时，大股东帝亚吉欧一年内两次溢价要约收购，也彰显了帝亚吉欧对水井坊及中国白酒市场的长期信心。那么，此时投资者又该如何应对呢？

　　仁者见仁智者见智。从过去几年的要约收购案例来看，即便公司未来发展前景良好，在要约结束之后短期内股价下跌的概率其实更大。

　　前车之鉴：过往要约收购完成后股价下行概率更大

　　从以往的案例中了解到:在完成收购要约后，股价下行概率更大。最近几年发生的要约收购结束后股价明显回调都是一个普遍现象。以下为近期完成要约收购的上市公司其收购后股价走势：

　　水井坊：接受要约是否暗藏套利机会？ src=http://getimg.jrj.com.cn/images/2019/04/weixin/one_20190401070357851.jpg>

　　更长周期和更大样本的研究也标明，要约收购结束后股价回调概率较高。华创证券在一份研报中统计了近5年来A股标的公司部分要约后股价变化情况：后一日、后一周和后半月股价下跌的概率分别为76%、82%和76%，半月内平均最大回撤为6.4%，平均回撤为1.8%。

　　根据Wind数据库的统计，另一组针对最近5年要约收购典型案例的统计数据显示，要约收购期结束后1-5日的股价相对于要约收购价格和要约期最后一天的股价（由于要约期结束后停牌的要求，故第一天价格没有变化），其平均变化均呈下跌状态：

　　水井坊：接受要约是否暗藏套利机会？ src=http://getimg.jrj.com.cn/images/2019/04/weixin/one_20190401070359850.jpg>

　　基于以上A股部分要约收购案例来看，要约期结束后股价相较于要约价格折价约10%左右，相较于要约期最后一天的股价折价约为4%。

　　股价在要约收购结束后短期出现回调，在逻辑上有其合理性，尤其是针对要约收购价有溢价的情况。当要约收购价高于二级市场价格时，会吸引一部分套利资金，从二级市场买入股票并接受要约，将股票卖给收购方，从中套利。

　　投资者的几种选择

　　回到水井坊的案例。投资者基于对水井坊前景和本次要约收购不同的判断、资金仓位不同，会面临不同的选择。

　　1、针对当前手中没有持仓的投资者。

　　如果资金有更好投向，对要约收购套利不感兴趣，可以直接忽略。

　　如果要参与这次要约收购，计划从二级市场买入股票并接受要约、从中套利。那么需要关注买入价格与收购价（45元/股）之间的差价是否足够弥补交易费率及资金等成本。

　　同时也要考虑出现预受要约股份超过预定收购比例的可能性。在这种情况下GMIHL则按照同等比例收购预受要约的股份。计算公式如下： GMIHL从每个预受要约股东处购买的股份数量＝该股东预受要约的股份数×（48,854,570股÷要约期间所有股东预受要约的股份总数）。余下股份解除临时保管，不予收购。如果出现这种情况，未被要约收购的那部分股份，可能就要面临要约收购结束后股价波动的风险。

　　2、针对当前手中有持仓的投资者。

　　如果判断水井坊在要约收购后，股价像此前的案例那样大概率出现回调，则会选择接受要约暂时离场。

　　如果长期看好水井坊的发展，同时也判断要约收购后股价会回调，那么可能会选择先接受要约，在股价回调后重新买入股票、恢复仓位。

　　无论采取哪种举措，都要综合考虑股价短期走势和对公司长期价值的评估。（JW）

　　Diageo’s Tender Offer for SJF Shares: A Hidden Arbitrage OPPortunity？

　　The expiry date of the tender offer period （3 April 2019） for the tender offer for SJF （600779.SH） by the global liquor giant Diageo is only a few trading days away. According to the announcements issued by SJF， the tender offer price is RMB45/share.

　　How should investors make their decision， facing the coming deadline？ Should existing shareholders tender their shares， or continue to hold the shares until after the tender offer？ Should other investors buy in to take advantage of the potential arbitrage opportunity？

　　Tender offer is a common method to acquire shares in the international market， but less so for the A share market. However， the A share market has seen more tender offer cases in recent years. A study of past tender offer cases may provide some reference for investors—especially the existing SJF shareholders—on decision-making as to accePTAnce of the tender offer.

　　According to Wind database statistics， looking at the past few years of Partial Tender Offers in China， share price was more likely to fall over a few trading days after expiry of a tender offer period. This may serve as a reference， but it does not guarantee that any future tender offer will follow the pattern. As to the current tender offer for SJF， investors should first know the ins and outs of Diageo’s tender offer for SJF.

　　Diageo issues a partial tender offer intended to increase its shareholding in SJF to 70%

　　On 27 February 2019, SJF issued an announcement stating: on 26 February 2019, the Company received a written notification from its shareholder， Grand Metropolitan International Holdings Limited （“GMIHL” or the “Offeror”）， awholly owned subsidiary of Diageo plc， the actual controller of the Company， stating that the Offeror intends to increase the percentage of its direct and indirect holding of SJF shares from 60.00% to up to 70.00% through a tender offer.

　　SJF published the official tender offer report on 1 March. According to the tender offer report， Diageo is optimistic about the long-term prospects of the baijiu industry. SJF has earned good brand value and market reputation in the industry. The purpose of the tender offer is to view SJF as a key strategic asset， and will continue to support its growth.

　　According to relevant announcement， Diageo intends to purchase up to 48,854,570 SJF shares through the tender offer， and the tender offer is not subject to any minimum acceptance requirement. The tender offer price is RMB45.00/share， representing a 19.33% premium over the closing price of SJF on 26 February 2019 （RMB37.71）. The tender offer period shall be 30 calendar days in total， commencing from 5 March 2019 to 3 April 2019. Based on the tender offer price of RMB45.00/share， the maximum funding required for the tender offer will be RMB2.198 billion. GMIHL has， prior to the date of the indicative announcement of the Abstract of the Tender Offer Report， deposited an amount of approximately RMB440 million， which is no less than 20% of the maximum funding required for the Tender Offer， into the bank account designated by China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited （CSDC）， Shanghai Branch， as the security deposit for the tender offer.

　　Who is Diageo？ How does it have the financial capability of completing a tender offer of such substantial value within such short time？

　　Diageo is a global liquor giant， and is capable of performing its obligations

　　Diageo is a global company established in UK in 1997. It is one of the largest liquor companies in the world， and is listed on the London Stock Exchange （stock code: DGE.L） and the New York Stock Exchange （stock code: DEO.N）， with a total market capitalization of around 100 billion US dollars.

　　Diageo and its subsidiaries engage in liquor business in more than 180 countries and regions around the world， and own a series of premium liquor brands covering distilled liquor and beer.

　　Diageo is assigned by three major international rating agencies a good credit rating， with stable rating outlook. The details of the latest credit ratings of Diageo are as follows:

　　水井坊：接受要约是否暗藏套利机会？ src=http://getimg.jrj.com.cn/images/2019/04/weixin/one_20190401070401849.jpg>

　　In terms of financial performance， Diageo has achieved stable growth of total assets， turnover and normalized net profits in the past three financial years.As of 30 June 2018, Diageo has total assets of GBP29,715,000,000 , net assets of GBP11,713,000,000 , net profits of GBP3,022,000,000 , a debt to assets ratio of 60.58%， cash and cash equivalent （on book） of GBP874,000,000 , and strong ability to perform its obligations.

　　水井坊：接受要约是否暗藏套利机会？ src=http://getimg.jrj.com.cn/images/2019/04/weixin/one_20190401070403849.jpg>

　　According to the tender offer announcement， Diageo has the qualification for issuing the tender offer for SJF， and has made proper arrangements to fund its obligations under the tender offer. Diageo has the capacity to conduct the tender offer， pay for the tender offer and fulfill the other obligations in connection with the tender offer.

　　What is the rationale of Diageo， as a global liquor giant， to make this investment to acquire SJF shares？

　　SJF regains growth momentum in turnover and profits and strives for growth in high-endmarket.

　　According to public information， SJF is one of the baijiu brands representative of Chinese aroma-flavor baijiu. In June 2008, “Shuijingfang traditional distillation technique” was included in the first list of National Intangible Cultural Heritage， and the waiting list for World Cultural Heritage.

　　As a listed company， SJF was formerly known as Sichuan Pharmaceutical Co.， Ltd.， which was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on 6 December 1996.

　　The company changed its name to Sichuan Quanxing Co.， Ltd. on 22 July 1999, and then to Sichuan Shuijingfang Co.， Ltd. on 19 September 2006.

　　In 2007, Diageo acquired 43% shares of Quanxing Group， the parent company of SJF， and subsequently acquired all remaining shares of Quanxing Group， which made Diageo the sole shareholder of Quanxing Group， and the actual controller of the listed company.

　　Despite the ownership of the famous “Shuijingfang” brand， the listed company was loss-making for years due to operational and competition reasons， and used to receive a special treatment （ST） designation. After becoming the controlling shareholder of SJF， Diageo made a series of reform and improved the performance of SJF significantly. SJF became profitable and got rid of the ST designation in 2015, and achieved continuous growth in turnover and profits in the following years.

　　水井坊：接受要约是否暗藏套利机会？ src=http://getimg.jrj.com.cn/images/2019/04/weixin/one_20190401070405851.jpg>

　　According to the latest announcement of result forecast for 2018 （predicting a growth of profits）， SJF expects that the net profits attributable to parent company in 2018 will increase by circa. RMB244,000,000 or 73% year-on-year， the turnover r by circa. RMB771,000,000 or 38% year-on-year， and the normalized net profit by circa. RMB248,000,000 or 69% year-on-year. The sales volume of intermediate and premium liquor will increase by circa. 1,487.57 kl or 27% year-on-year.

　　SJF also made significant reform in terms of branding， products and channels. The company has established a new exclusive distributor system， discontinued low-end product lines and focused on the super premium segment. It plans to make an investment of RMB2.5 billion to build a full industry-chain base in Qionglai.

　　Generally speaking， SJF’s operation has seen significant improvement since Diageo became the controlling shareholder， and many securities companies（including HuaTai Securities，China Securities，HUACHUANG Securities） also hold a positive view in their research reports.

　　As SJF’s operational results continue to improve， Diageo as the controlling shareholder also shows its confidence in long term prospects of SJF and the Chinese baijiu market， by issuing two tender offers at premium in one year. How should investors respond？

　　Each investor may have their own opinion from their own perspective. According to data from the Wind database regarding partial tender offer cases （in China） in the past few years， stock price was more likely to drop in short term after the expiry of tender offer period， even if a company had promising prospects.

　　Lessons learned from past cases: Stock price was more likely to drop after completion of a tender offer.

　　Stock price correction was very common among the tender offer cases in the past few years. The stock price movement of the listed companies after completion of a tender offer in recent years is listed below:

　　水井坊：接受要约是否暗藏套利机会？ src=http://getimg.jrj.com.cn/images/2019/04/weixin/one_20190401070407852.jpg>

　　Study of a larger sample pool across a longer period also shows that stock price is likely to fall after completion of a tender offer. In an analyst report， Huachuan Securities studies the stock price movement of A share companies after a partial tender offer in the past 5 years. It shows that the probability of stock price drop in the next day， next week and next half month is 76%， 82% and 76% respectively， and the average half-month maximum drawdown is 6.4%， and average drawdown is 1.8%.

　　According to another set of data from the Wind Database looking at typical tender offer cases in China in the past 5 years， stock price on the first to fifth day after expiry of the tender offer period declines on average， compared to the tender offer price and the stock price on the last day of the tender offer period （due to the required trading suspension upon expiry of the tender offer period， the stock price on the first day after expiry of the tender offer period is the same as the stock price on the last day of the tender offer period）:

　　水井坊：接受要约是否暗藏套利机会？ src=http://getimg.jrj.com.cn/images/2019/04/weixin/one_20190401070409851.jpg>

　　According to the A share tender offer cases above， stock price after expiry of the tender offer period is approximately 10% lower than the tender offer price， and approximately 4% lower than the stock price on the last day of the tender offer period.

　　It is logical that stock price will see correction in short term after completion of a tender offer， especially one with a tender offer price at premium. When the tender offer price is higher than the price on the secondary market， it will attract certain arbitrage investors， who will seek arbitrage profits by buying shares on the secondary market and tendering and selling these shares to the offeror.

　　Possible options for investors

　　Back to the SJF case. Different investors may make different decisions， depending on their views of SJF’s prospects and the tender offer， and their funding and shareholding positions.

　　If you are of the view that SJF stock price is likely to fall after the tender offer， as it did in previous cases， you may choose to tender the shares for pre-acceptance and cash out.

　　If you are optimistic about SJF’s long term prospects， but also expect a stock price correction after the tender offer， you may first tender your shares for now， and rebuild your position by buying shares after the price correction.

　　In either case， you would need to consider short term stock price movement and long term valuation of the company in a holistic manner.